What is happening in Spain, Banking Union

Les echos (6/11)

ESP - Plan mise en place: 240 bnE GRE, 100 bnE ESP, 85 bnE IRL, 78 bnE POR. Total: 500 bnE. Impact sur la dette FRA: 100 bnE x 20% = 20 bnE = 1 pt PIB. Recommandations FMI 40 bnE. FROB: fonds public soutien secteur bancaire espagnol.
Q1- Pourquoi acceleration? Avant vote 17 juin GRE. "La premiere fois que saute le pas avant que trop tard".
Q2- Pourquoi les banques uniquement? Calcul si ESP total 450 bnE... mais MES 500 bnE. Bankia 23 bnE besoin capitaux. Un sauvetage complet de l'ESP viderait les mecanismes europeens.
Q3- Qui prete? FESF. Taux 3%. Supervision FMI-BCE-CE. Conditionalite: restructuration secteur bancaire espagnol, comme IRL.
Q4- Quel impact sur bqs FRA? Exposition 700 moE SG, 300 moE BNPP, 140 mo CA, 40 moE BPCE = 1.2 bnE.
Q5- Pourquoi pbl Bankia? 300 bnE d'actifs, #4, 12 mo clients, fonds propres 9.5%, portefeuille immobilier 45%. Fusion des cajas... mais BDE autorise des fusions politiques, "la grande caisse du PP". Projet pharaonique de Valencia. Restructuration en 2011 avec BFA et Bancia. Introduction en bourse avec decote 30%. 25 avril auditeur refuse valider les comptes, 7 mai Rajo demissionne...

FRA - Conjoncture +0 T1, -0.1 T2 (BDF). Impots sur les societes: retour plus faible que prevu, -6 pc 2011-12. Cour de justice europeenne: OPCVM etranger paiement de 4,3 bnE pcq taxation dividende 30% vs. 0% exoneres.

? Armateurs grecs: defiscalises comme les francais?

EUR - Echeances:
6/14 Monti-Hollande,
6/17 elections Grece,
6/18-19 Los Cabos,
6/21 Ecofin,
6/22 sommet ESP-ITA-FRA-ALL.

EU - Union bancaire : 1- surveillance centralisee des banques, 2- mecanisme assurance depot, 3- meme schema de resolution des crises. Eviter bank run et flight to quality. Fonds commun de garantie des depots, donc ressource budgétaire commune.
Reaction UK: 1- Risque du contribuable pour GRE ou ESP. 2- Distorsion de concurrence en faveur des membres, negatif si Londres absent.

FRA. Dispositif carrière longues (17 ans), étendu à 18-19 ans, couterait moins que prevu à l’Etat ; deux trimestres pour femmes et chomeurs. Cout passerait de 1 a 3 bn€ par an entre 2013-17 ; 110 000 personnes environ. 60 mo -> 30 mo actifs -> 0.8 mo par classe d’age -> 0.1 concerne (12% pas 25%).

Les Strauss-Kahn.

WSJ

- DATA: European Payment Index, delay in payment for public authorities, consumers, business…*
- Aquino to visit the US
- (Alina Dizik) Mastering the epic art of American slang.
- (ID) Apple and google expand in mobile phone.
- Under earth, rocks or a hard place (John Miller)

TJT (6/4-5-8)

Eco

- Panasonic to bankroll Olympus.
- Plan to move from wooden house to apt block.
- Center for Work Life Policy study. 2012 MWHL White Paper on children, child-rearing and mothers, 83% want to work. 
- TEPCO wages at 5.7 moY or 0.28 higher than for same size company, plan to increase further by 0.46.
- Panasonic considering cutting 3-4 k people out of 7 k HQ. Slash worforce by 36 k to 330.
- Jama six barriers: yen, tax, electricity, labor, FTA, CO2.
- Tax cooperation Jpn and Kor.

* ROGOFF. Austerity vs. debt. Naïve debt-ceiling absolutists (can’t walk away from responsibility, cost of abrupt change…) Simplistic Keyensians: debt over 90% of GDP is a long-term drag on growth, high-debt episode lasted 23 years, income 25 % lower. Drag on growth: eventual need to raise tax, lower investment. Also lower interest rate**. Expanding the debt above 90% is a risk.

Misc

- C134 and C137  of 4 and 6 Bq/kg in tuna blue fish. - La Hague convention not retroactive; father return child when ‘cold shutdown achieved at Fk1’.
- Was Li really a spy? Judge unsure to indict him: maybe job search; received fees instead of paying for information; only issue false identity to renew alien registration card. Press speculation.
- Stay or go? 10% of California cost protected by seawall, but rise of sea level 18 pc 20c and set to rise 30-40 cm by 2050; decision to abandon some public lands; Alaska relocation on higher ground,
- Beat Takaeshi’s comment that Obama with allowed marriage to animals, Eri Watanabe (Shall we dance, 1996). Humor on the weak, not articulate.